Childhood Autism & Chronic Disease Rates Over Time
Childhood autism rates increasing over time — alongside ADHD, allergies, and autoimmune diseases — represent one of the most significant and unexplained public health trends of the past four decades.
The dramatic rise in chronic disease among American children since the 1980s — from less than 10% of children in the 1980s to over 40% in 2025. Aaron Siri raises this trend as a potential consequence of the expanding Childhood Vaccine Schedule, and argues that vaccinologists systematically avoid studying any connection between the two.
The Data Point
1980s: Fewer than 10% of children had chronic disease
2025: More than 40% of children have chronic disease
Siri's Argument
Siri presents three converging data points and asks whether they could be related:
1. Many of the chronic diseases now prevalent in children are listed in vaccine package inserts by pharma companies (who are legally required to list harms they have a basis to believe are causally related to their vaccine)
2. These chronic diseases are typically related to immune system dysregulation
3. Vaccines are products specifically intended to modify the immune system — and the number of such products injected into infants grew from 3 injections by age 1 (1986) to 29 (2025)
His argument is not that vaccines definitively cause chronic disease, but that vaccinologists refuse to study the question. Based on the documented pattern of how vaccine safety questions are handled, the prediction is that this correlation will remain unstudied — while officials simultaneously assert that vaccines do not contribute to rising chronic disease rates.
Types of Conditions Referenced
Specific data on chronic disease rates includes:
Autism:
1970: approximately 1 in 10,000 children (historical estimate cited by Siri)
2022: 1 in 31 children — CDC's own reported autism prevalence
From vaccinated vs. unvaccinated studies:
Jackson State University pilot study (320 vaccinated / 48 unvaccinated children):
- 320% more autism in vaccinated
- 420% more learning disabilities
- 270% more neurodevelopmental disorders
Sage Open Medicine study: vaccinated children had 118% more developmental delay, 349% more asthma, 113% more ear infections
Ulster County, NY (cohort of unvaccinated children): 0% ASD, 0% seizures, 0% diabetes (vs. population background rates)
Amish community study: 168 unvaccinated children — none with autism, ADHD, or chronic conditions
University of Colorado study: Found cumulative vaccine doses were among the highest-correlated environmental factors with autism rates — higher than many other studied variables.
Conditions cited in vaccine package inserts (and therefore legally acknowledged by pharma companies as harms they have a basis to believe are causally related):
Conditions "related to some form of immune dysregulation"
Conditions not diagnosed until months or years of age (supporting the argument that a 5-day pre-licensure safety window cannot detect them)
Significance
This trend functions in Siri's argument as a background question that vaccinology refuses to answer. The growth in vaccine schedule and the growth in childhood chronic disease overlap temporally. The immune system is the common mechanism. The pre-licensure safety trials use windows too short to detect chronic disease. Post-licensure studies that could establish or rule out causation are never funded.
How much have childhood chronic disease rates increased since the 1980s?
In the 1980s, fewer than 10% of American children had chronic disease. By 2025, more than 40% of children have chronic disease. This increase occurred during the same period the CDC childhood vaccine schedule expanded from 3 injections by age 1 in 1986 to approximately 25-29 by 2025. Autism prevalence went from approximately 1 in 10,000 in 1970 to 1 in 31 by 2022 according to CDC data.
What did vaccinated vs. unvaccinated studies find about chronic disease rates?
Multiple independent studies found higher chronic disease rates in vaccinated cohorts. The Jackson State University study found 320% more autism, 420% more learning disabilities, and 270% more neurodevelopmental disorders in vaccinated children. A Sage Open Medicine study found 349% more asthma and 118% more developmental delay. An Ulster County cohort of unvaccinated children showed 0% ASD, 0% seizures, and 0% diabetes.
Are childhood chronic diseases listed in vaccine package inserts?
Yes. Many chronic diseases now prevalent in children are listed in vaccine package inserts by pharmaceutical companies, which are legally required to list harms they have a basis to believe are causally related to their vaccine. These conditions are typically related to immune system dysregulation, and vaccines are products specifically intended to modify the immune system.
Has anyone studied the correlation between vaccine schedule expansion and chronic disease?
A University of Colorado study examined multiple environmental factors correlated with autism rates and found cumulative vaccine doses were among the highest-correlated factors. However, no large-scale government-funded study has been conducted specifically to evaluate the relationship between the expanding vaccine schedule and rising childhood chronic disease rates. The CDC has argued such studies are "not feasible" and "unethical."
Why hasn't the connection between vaccines and chronic disease been studied?
Aaron Siri argues that pharma companies have no financial incentive to fund studies that could find their products cause harm (especially given liability protection). The CDC has an institutional disincentive since it defends against vaccine injury claims in the VICP. Pre-licensure trials use observation windows of 3-14 days — too short to detect chronic conditions. The IOM recommended vaccinated vs. unvaccinated studies; the CDC has never conducted them.
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