The Henry Ford Health System vaccinated vs. unvaccinated study compared health outcomes in thousands of children — here is what the primary source data shows about chronic disease rates between groups.
An unpublished birth cohort study conducted at Henry Ford Health System in Detroit comparing short- and long-term chronic health outcomes between vaccinated (one or more vaccines) and completely unvaccinated children. The study found vaccinated children had 2.5× the overall rate of chronic health conditions and dramatically higher rates of specific disorders. Its findings were suppressed by Henry Ford Health administration before submission for publication.
In early 2017, ICAN sought a scientist the CDC would trust to access the VSD (Vaccine Safety Datalink) for a vaccinated vs. unvaccinated (VvU) study. ICAN CEO Del Bigtree had met Dr. Marcus Zervos — Division Head of Infectious Disease at Henry Ford Health (33,000 team members, 250+ locations), Co-Director of the Center for Emerging and Infectious Diseases at Wayne State University, and a pharma principal investigator. Zervos appeared to be someone the CDC would trust.
Aaron Siri and Del Bigtree flew to Detroit in early 2017. Zervos agreed to a study — but proposed using Henry Ford's own internal health data rather than the VSD, which would have faced hurdles obtaining CDC approval.
Full title: "Impact of Childhood Vaccination on Short and Long-Term Chronic Health Outcomes in Children: A Birth Cohort Study"
Authors: Lois Lamerato, PhD; Abigail Chatfield, MS; Amy Tang, PhD; Marcus Zervos, MD
Affiliation: Henry Ford Health System / Wayne State University School of Medicine
Funding: None (conducted during spare time using existing Henry Ford resources)
Completed: Early 2020 (approximately 3 years after initiation)
Population: 18,468 consecutive children born 2000–2016, enrolled in Henry Ford's Health Alliance Plan (HAP) from birth
Data sources: Medical, clinical, and payer records from HFHS/HAP, supplemented by Michigan immunization registry data. All diagnoses from medical records (not parental recall).
Eligibility: Born and enrolled in HAP for >60 days, with HFHS as primary care system.
Design strength: Retrospective birth cohort capturing all medical encounters from birth through disenrollment (or December 31, 2017) — enabling long-term outcome comparison.
Siri made two requests at the outset:
1. Publish regardless of outcome — Zervos agreed, looking Siri in the eyes and affirming he was "a man of integrity"
2. Unvaccinated = zero vaccines — not "partially vaccinated," to ensure a clean comparison
Vaccination was independently associated with an overall 2.5× increased risk of developing a chronic health condition:
After 10 years of follow-up:
| Condition | Vaccinated (N) | Unvaccinated (N) | IRR (CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic Health Condition (overall) | 4,732 | 160 | 2.48 (2.12–2.91) |
| Asthma | 2,867 | 52 | 4.09 (3.11–5.38) |
| Atopic Disease | 946 | 23 | 2.64 (1.74–3.99) |
| Autoimmune Disease | 201 | 2 | 6.16 (1.53–24.79) |
| Neurodevelopmental Disorder | 1,029 | 9 | 6.15 (3.19–11.86) |
| ADHD | 262 | 0 | ∞ (could not calculate) |
| Behavioral Disability | 165 | 0 | ∞ |
| Learning Disability | 65 | 0 | ∞ |
| Tics | 46 | 0 | ∞ |
| Developmental Delay | 219 | 3 | 3.74 (1.20–11.68) |
| Speech Disorder | 463 | 6 | 4.02 (1.80–9.00) |
| Mental Health Disorder | 341 | 5 | 3.50 (1.45–8.46) |
| Diabetes | 42 | 0 | ∞ |
| Brain Dysfunction | 8 | 0 | ∞ |
| Cancer | 169 | 13 | 0.79 (0.45–1.39) — NO signal |
| Autism | 23 | 1 | 1.16 (0.16–8.62) — not statistically significant |
| Condition | Adjusted HR (CI) | P value |
|---|---|---|
| Chronic Health Condition | 2.54 (2.18–2.97) | <0.0001 |
| Asthma | 4.29 (3.26–5.66) | <0.0001 |
| Atopic Disease | 3.03 (2.01–4.57) | <0.0001 |
| Autoimmune Disease | 5.96 (1.44–24.11) | 0.02 |
| Neurodevelopmental Disorder | 5.52 (2.91–10.01) | <0.0001 |
| Developmental Delay | 3.28 (1.13–9.56) | 0.03 |
| Speech Disorder | 4.47 (2.05–9.74) | <0.0001 |
| Cancer | 0.89 (0.51–1.56) | 0.72 — no association |
Sensitivity analyses (controlling for enrollment duration):
As enrollment minimum increased (excluding children who hadn't been followed long enough to develop conditions), the disparity grew, validating the finding.
Sensitivity analysis (healthcare utilization): When limited to children with at least one healthcare encounter, the association remained: IRR 1.83 (1.56–2.14). Siri notes this is expected — unvaccinated children with serious conditions still sought medical care.
Internal validity check: The study found no association between vaccination and cancer (IRR 0.79) — consistent with the expected absence of a causal relationship. This suggests the findings for other conditions are not artifacts of general health care-seeking behavior differences.
Despite Zervos's promise to publish regardless of outcome, Henry Ford Health administration blocked submission:
Siri's conclusion: if the study had found vaccinated children were healthier, it would have been published immediately. It was suppressed because its findings contradicted vaccine dogma. The study has been withheld for approximately five years.
Siri argues the Henry Ford study is potentially the most robust VvU finding ever produced:
The suppression of unfavorable findings creates publication bias: studies confirming vaccine safety are published, while those suggesting harm are blocked — distorting the published evidence base.
Post-Licensure Safety Monitoring, Childhood Chronic Disease Trends, VSD (Vaccine Safety Datalink), ICAN, CDC
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